Doctoral Studies

DR. MUSTAFA KEMAL KAYMAK

"A Fuzzy Overlay-Based Optimization Approach for the Siting of Floating Photovoltaic Power Plants: Identification of Suitable Reservoir Surfaces"

In recent years, the impacts of climate change have been increasingly observed across the globe. Among these impacts—manifested as increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological conditions—rises in global average temperatures are the most pronounced. As temperature increases, so does the capacity of air to hold moisture, thereby intensifying evaporation from water reservoirs. This feedback mechanism, which reinforces itself positively, places accessible water resources at greater risk of drought worldwide. The principal cause of climate change globally is the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. While GHGs are emitted through various activities, fossil fuel-based energy production using coal and natural gas contributes the most. These gases also lead to air pollution, posing direct threats to public health. Although the global use of renewable energy has increased over the last 30 years with the aim of reducing GHG emissions, national policies geared toward development and economic prosperity have hindered substantial emission reductions. As a result, the dual threats of drought caused by global warming and the broader environmental impacts of GHG emissions have rendered renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar, essential for planetary and ecological sustainability. Among the most promising renewable energy applications is the deployment of Floating Solar Power Plants (FSPPs). FSPPs not only benefit from a thermal cooling effect on photovoltaic panels—enhancing solar power generation—but also reduce evaporation by acting as a barrier between sunlight and the reservoir surface. However, determining optimal siting locations for FSPPs remains a significant challenge worldwide. There is a notable lack of universal siting methodologies applicable to micro-siting of FSPPs on various water bodies, which differ in morphometric characteristics. Consequently, spatial resolution of commonly encountered natural constraints is required to generalize FSPP siting strategies globally. This study addresses this issue through a spatially detailed analysis of three primary environmental constraints—solar radiation, wind speed, and wave height—in the Manavgat Dam Reservoir, located in southwestern Turkey (Antalya province). The suitability for FSPP deployment was based on identifying areas with high solar radiation and low wind and wave activity. Solar Radiation: The first step involved computing annual total solar radiation across the entire reservoir area, accounting for topographic shading effects. The analysis was performed using the r.sun module within QGIS, a widely used GIS platform. This module calculates different radiation components and has been applied in large-scale renewable energy projects. Wind Speed: To resolve spatial wind patterns, particularly extreme events like storms and tornados observed in 2019, eight WRF/ARW model simulations were run using different physical parameterizations. The simulation with the highest statistical accuracy was selected. Since the WRF model outputs lacked sufficient spatial resolution over the reservoir, the WindNinja software—offering computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based wind modeling—was used to generate a high-resolution (50m x 50m) spatial wind speed layer. Wave Height: Estimating wind-induced wave height required the prior calculation of fetch distance, a key variable for wave development. The Waves toolbox, an ArcGIS for Desktop extension, was used to generate fetch and wave height maps spatially across the reservoir, based on dominant wind direction and maximum wind speed. After individual analyses of these three environmental criteria, a fuzzy overlay method was applied to integrate them. This approach converted each raster-based constraint into a standardized scale (0–1), facilitating comparison across different physical units. The fuzzy sum operator was used to combine the layers, producing a composite map of Floating Solar Power Plant Suitable Reservoir Surface (FSPP-SRS). Findings revealed that the southern areas of the Manavgat Reservoir, especially those close to the dam body and shoreline, were less suitable for FSPP siting due to shading and wave effects. Similarly, northern shallow zones were unsuitable due to increased wave height. The most suitable regions were located in the central and southeastern parts of the reservoir, where water is deeper, there are no surrounding islands, and distance from the shoreline minimizes disturbance. In conclusion, this thesis proposes and demonstrates a novel and replicable spatial methodology for determining suitable FSPP installation sites within a reservoir. The approach provides a systematic framework that can be adapted for other reservoirs worldwide. The study also offers practical guidance for future projects that aim to integrate renewable energy development with sustainable water resource management.

DR. MEHMET SEREN KORKMAZ

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